Odds on NBA

Odds on NBA

NBA: First of two chances for road dog Celtics to close series
2010-06-15

After winning Game 2 of the NBA Finals series between his Celtics and the Lakers, Paul Pierce claimed that his team would not be coming back to Los Angeles. Well, they got 2/3 of the way there by taking two games at home. Now with the first of two chances to close out a second NBA title in three years, the C’s face a hefty 6.5-point underdog line in Tuesday’s Game 6, according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a look at the game.

When the Celtics wrapped up Game 5 and moved one win away from an unprecedented 18th championship, the jubilant Boston crowd sent them off to the West Coast for the final time this season with one last chorus of that age-old “Beat L-A!” chant.

The Celtics will have to overcome their unimpressive record in closeout playoff games away from Boston to finish off the Lakers in Game 6 of the NBA finals on Tuesday night. For all their remarkable success over the past three seasons, including the 2008 title and another finals run this year, the Celtics have converted just one of their eight chances to finish a playoff series away from home.

They’ve got two opportunities at Staples Center, however, oddsmakers are still of the belief that the Lakers are the superior team in this series, assigning them as 6.5-point favorites as hosts, when the Celtics were giving just 3-points on their own home court.

Even after winning three of the series’ last four games, and compiling the NBA’s second-best road record in the regular season (26-15), the Celtics can’t be lulled into thinking they’ve got the Lakers on the run.

The Lakers are 9-1 at home in the postseason, and by no means is Boston taking its task lightly.

“The Lakers … got homecourt advantage, but we’ve played the best all year on the road,” Boston coach Doc Rivers said. “We’re going to have to beat them at their best, because they’re going to be great there, and we can’t expect anything else.”

For the Celtics, this will be the 23rd playoff game of the season, and they are 6-5 SU & ATS on the road, as part of an overall 15-7 SU & ATS mark. The recipe for bettors has been simple for Boston though, win and cover, lose and don’t. The straight up winner of the Celtics’ 2010 playoff games is an incredible 22-0 ATS.

Boston has also been strong versus its best opponents on the road:

• BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 94.8, OPPONENT 92.7 - (Rating = 1*)

While the Celtics have ample reason to be confident, Lakers coach Phil Jackson and Bryant also didn’t seem particularly worried before the grand finale. “We have a challenge, obviously, down 3-2,” said Bryant, who scored 38 points in Game 5 while his struggling teammates only managed 48. “We let a couple opportunities slip away, but it is what it is. Now you go home, you’ve got two games at home that you need to win, and you pull your boots up and get to work.”

Heading into the finals, the Celtics believed they could beat the Lakers by shutting down Bryant’s teammates, even if Kobe went crazy on them. After all, that’s what Boston did two years ago in the finals—and so far, it’s working splendidly again.

Bryant is averaging 30.2 points per game, while Pau Gasol averages 18.8 points and 10 rebounds despite glaring inconsistency in his game in Boston. That’s just about it: Nobody else in purple and gold is averaging more than Andrew Bynum’s 9.6 points per game.

While Jackson likely senses the biggest danger yet to his streak of 47 straight playoff series victories after winning Game 1, the Celtics sense a golden opportunity to join the Boston greats who won multiple titles while repeatedly denying the Lakers nine previous times in the NBA finals.

They’ve just got to finish a playoff series on the road, something they failed to do in Miami and Orlando earlier this season. While Boston’s current starters have never lost a playoff series, they also haven’t finished one away from TD Garden since the 2008 Eastern Conference finals against Detroit.

The Lakers have to be hoping for a shift in tempo after going under the total in all three games at Boston, following back-to-back over’s in the first two L.A. contests. An up-tempo, higher scoring tilt would seemingly favor the hosts:

• BOSTON is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 97.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*)

With the spread wins in Games 4 & 5, Boston is now on a 12-4 ATS run overall versus Los Angeles. The StatFox Power Line for Tuesday night’s 9:00 PM ET tip-off on ABC shows Los Angeles by 2, but a margin small enough to grant Boston a GREEN STAR edge against the number.

---

NBA: Atlanta at Milwaukee 8:30E NBA-TV
2010-04-26

Just when experts were ready to write off the Bucks in their first round Eastern Conference playoff series with Atlanta, Milwaukee came up with a huge effort on its home court, turning back the Hawks in a relatively easy 18-point win on Saturday. Tonight, Game 4 of the series is on tap, and oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com show Atlanta as the 1.5-point favorite. Can the Bucks even the series, or are the Hawks ready to assume control.

Coach Mike Woodson said his Atlanta club has to learn to deal with adversity, especially on the road. Hey coach, what about if they just decide to act like they even care about giving effort on the playoff road for goodness sake. Consider Luc Mbah a Moute, Kurt Thomas and Dan Gadzuric of Milwaukee had a decided advantage over Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams just by trying, something the team in the ATL jerseys just were not interested in.

This team is supposed to be maturing, but after Saturday’s debacle, the Hawks have lost eight of nine road playoffs games the last three years, with the average margin of defeat 22.6 PPG. Take a look at this trend further illustrating the struggles of the franchise on the road:

• ATLANTA is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games in all playoff games since 1996. The average score was ATLANTA 82.0, OPPONENT 96.1 - (Rating = 1*)

“I still think we’re a team that’s still learning how to win, like all teams in this league,” Woodson said. “It’s not easy winning on the road, and I never use that as an excuse, but that’s reality.” Losing is one thing but being blown out and man-handled is quite another. Dating back several seasons, this franchise is 2-12 ATS on the road in the first round of the playoffs.

This has to give the Bucks a great deal of confidence and maybe those signs around town spooked Atlanta – Fear the Deer.

Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season; nevertheless is not getting ahead of itself. “There was a lot of pressure on us to come out and win Game 3,” rookie Brandon Jennings said. “But we can’t celebrate. We’ve got to come back Monday and do the same thing.”

Sportsbook.com has established the Hawks as 1.5-point favorites with 191 total, if for no other reason than pride. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS and 8-1 OVER off a double digit defeat. The Andrew Bogut-less Bucks are 14-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and are 14-2 OVER as a home deer, whoops, dog of three points or less.

The StatFox Power Ratings show the wrong team being favored, Milwaukee by 3.

---

NBA Florida throw-down in Miami
2010-03-19

The Orlando Magic are feeling pretty good about Vince Carter’s steady performance in recent weeks. If they can get Rashard Lewis playing at that same level, they’ll be ecstatic. Lewis looks to build on his best game of an otherwise awful month Thursday when the Magic - seeking their 10th victory in 11 games - visit the Miami Heat. The Magic are 2-point road favorites at Sportsbook.com, but the Heat have upset on their minds.

Neither Carter (42.5 percent) nor Lewis (42.9) has shot the ball well this season. Orlando (48-21, 35-30-4 ATS) has plenty of other options to compensate for that duo’s struggles, but getting both stars on track could be critical with the playoffs approaching. Carter seems well on his way. The former Rookie of the Year has averaged 19.0 points on 54.6 percent shooting over his last 10 games as the Magic have gone 9-1 and 7-3 ATS.

Lewis, on the other hand, has been completely off his game. He had averaged 4.0 points over Orlando’s previous three games heading into San Antonio’s visit on Wednesday, and coach Stan Van Gundy said his two-time All-Star lacked energy. Orlando travels south and is 19-9 ATS in road games after a non-conference test over the last two seasons.

While Thursday’s meeting is the last of the regular season between the Magic and the Heat, it could be a playoff preview. Orlando is the East’s No. 2 seed, with Miami currently in the seventh slot.

The Heat (35-33, 34-34 ATS) won the first two games of the season series as Lewis struggled, scoring nine points in each game and shooting 25.0 percent. He fared much better versus Miami on Feb. 28 at home. Lewis had 22 points to lead the Magic to a 96-80.

Dwyane Wade has managed 23.3 points on 39.3 percent shooting against Orlando, but he’s elevated his game so far in March to help the Heat get back in the playoff picture. In ninth place after the Feb. 28 loss to the Magic, the Heat have since won six of eight behind 30.3 points per game from Wade. Yet one night before Orlando routed the Spurs, Miami couldn’t deliver against San Antonio. Wade had 28 points Tuesday but his teammates shot 36.5 percent in an 88-76 defeat. Even with the loss, Miami is 5-1 ATS in last six home games.

Sportsbook.com has Orlando as two-point favorites and they are 24-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since last season. Miami has had their problems with teams with offensive format like the Magic and are 18-36 ATS versus clubs who attempt 18 or more three-point shots a game in the second half of the season.

The total is a modest 188.5, the lowest it has been in exactly three years (3/18/07), when oddsmakers had it at 186. This could go either way as Orlando is 14-4 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the Heat are 12-3 OVER in March home games over the last two seasons.

This is the opener on TNT at 8:00 Eastern and both teams have been sloppy on Thursday nights with the Magic 1-4 ATS and Miami 5-13 ATS. The StatFox Power Line shows Orlando by 4

---

NBA: Phoenix at Atlanta (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-15

ESPN has a strong NBA doubleheader on tap for Friday night, and in the first game, Atlanta welcomes Phoenix to town for the only time this season. Read on for a closer look at that game then visit the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com for the latest prices, then head over to the BETTING TRENDS page to see where your betting colleagues are placing their trust.

The Phoenix Suns have been struggling on the road for more than a month, and recently they’ve displayed an inability to protect leads. Atlanta might not be the best place to remedy either of those troubles. In a matchup pitting two of the league’s top offenses, the Suns will try to bounce back from their latest loss Friday night against a Hawks team seeking its fifth win in six games.

For more than a week, Phoenix (24-15, 20-18-1 ATS) has been getting off to fast starts, only to see its intensity dissipate as the game progresses. This trend started Jan. 5 at Sacramento, when the Suns led by 20 in the second quarter only to let the Kings rally and tie the score in the fourth. They ultimately pulled out a 113-109 victory.

A similar scenario has occurred in each game since.

“It is alarming for us,” Suns forward Grant Hill said. “We have to figure it out, stay together, and try to improve. The only way you get there is as a unit. We’re good enough to get up big, but we have to get better at managing those leads.” The Suns have been outscored 129-97 in the second halves of their last two games and are 23-36 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

The Suns’ recent loss in Indiana opened a four-game road trip for the Suns, who have dropped eight of nine (3-6 ATS) away from Phoenix since Dec. 1. They are, however, continuing to pile up the points.

Phoenix is averaging 118.0 points in its last three road games and its 106.3 road scoring average leads the league. With the Suns defensive shortcomings of late, they are 13-3 ATS after allowing 120 points or more. They may need to light up the scoreboard at least that much against a Hawks team that’s plenty capable of scoring in its own right.

Atlanta (25-13) ranks fourth in the NBA with 108.2 points per game at home, helping produce a 15-4 record at Philips Arena. Atlanta is the best bet in the NBA at 26-12 ATS and also has the finest home spread record at 14-5.

The Hawks opened a season-high five-game homestand with Wednesday’s 94-82 victory over Washington, their third straight home win and fourth victory in five games overall. Joe Johnson scored 24 points and Jamal Crawford added 22 in a game Atlanta led by as many as 22. Johnson’s club protected the ball well against the Wizards in that outing and is 16-5 ATS after committing eight or less turnovers over the last two seasons.

Sportsbook.com has the Hawks favored by four, with 217.5 total. They are 10-2 ATS versus shooting teams making 46 percent or more of their shots this season and 8-1 OVER at home against clubs allowing 99 or more points a game this season, winning by a supersized 13.9 PPG. Phoenix has floundered this month, sporting a 5-15 ATS record in January games the last couple of years and is 12-3 UNDER after allowing 100 points or more three straight contests thru 39 games.

Atlanta has lost three straight to Phoenix and nine of the last 11 meetings (5-6 ATS), and is 4-9 and 5-8 ATS hosting the Suns since 1996.

---

NBA: Cleveland and backers in search of answers (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

It’s not a great time to be a Cleveland basketball fan, because what looked like a return to the NBA Finals is in serious jeopardy. The Cavaliers situation has everything to do with what is taking place on the court, not preconceived notions. Cleveland may have one of the two best players in basketball; however the team is not as good as Orlando’s. The margin of difference is not dramatic, but it is enough to matter and Cleveland backers have four losing wagering tickets to prove it in this series. Still, the Cavs are a hefty favorite tonight and most bettors figure they’ll extend this series to a 6th game. Get the latest percentage breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.

So what have been the differences to this point, let’s examine.

Orlando plays an unusual style of offense; basically they have Dwight Howard as only true post player, surrounded by four perimeter players. Howard, though limited in offensive moves, has superior strength over Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao and its laughable to suggest Ben Wallace would do better job than either of those two. Howard has had his way in the paint and uses his quickness to snatch offensive rebounds and have put-backs.

When Cleveland decides to double-team Howard, this leaves open the Magic’s array of shooters, who either can make medium or long distance shots, or drive to the basket thru open lanes created by doubling-down on Howard. It is clear the Cavs players are much more comfortable double-teaming within 5-15 feet range, as compared to being spread out like Orlando forces them to do at greater distances. This leaves coach Mike Brown with a real dilemma, either drink the poison or be injected with it.

Though Mo Williams and Delonte West are normally reliable shooters, they have not been in this series, not even close. This was never more evident than in Game 4, when the Cavaliers where moving the ball crisply and players that were able to get into the teeth of Orlando defense were kicking out passes to Williams and West and neither looked like they could make a shot if the basket was 2-feet larger in diameter. West to his credit worked on isolation matchups and was effective on the block in postup situations. Unfortunately, this twosome was gruesome 0-6 beyond the arc.

Cleveland returns home, where they are 44-3 (31-16 ATS), with one of the losses coming in the East Finals. As mentioned previously, one of the most difficult challenges for a sports bettor to overcome is believing what you are seeing and letting go of paradigms. Though Cleveland had the best regular season record and breezed thru first two rounds, they were 2-8 ATS versus teams that had 70 percent or higher win percentage during the regular season and four more losses have been added during this series.

Because Orlando had never accomplished much in the postseason, they were fairly easy to dismiss going up against Cleveland. The fact is the Magic are 32-18 SU and ATS on the road and though they were hammered a couple times in the postseason, to be that strong as a visitor speaks to the team’s true value.

Also, matchups are important and seeing Orlando is 10-4 and 13-1 ATS against the Cavaliers, this proves they have the physical and physiological edge.

Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 7.5-point favorite with total of 190. For the Cavs to force Game 6 and beyond, they have to have starters play as they have all season. Orlando has gone through shooting droughts and still managed to make enough baskets to matter, Cleveland has not. The Cavs need to find help off the bench as well, since they are being buried by Magic reserves. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss and 17-6 against the spread if it was three points or less.

Cleveland has too often talked, instead of played in this series. Even coach Brown is living in make-believe land. “This is about as even of a series as you can ask for. They’ve just made one or two plays down the stretch more than us. But I still feel the confidence, I still feel the togetherness and I still feel like we have a chance to win this,” Brown said. Coach, I hope you know this, but it is those one or two critical plays in games that make the difference between wins and losses and your team isn’t making them, no matter how much you love each other.
Though Orlando won’t discuss it, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season and teams with 3-1 leads in NBA playoffs are 182-8 in league history to finish off series as winners.

The action continues on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern.

---

NBA: Big Day Continues in the NBA
2009-01-19

The day long activity of NBA action marches on to celebrate Martin Luther King Day. The focus will be on four games, with the latter three televised on TNT for viewing pleasure, which includes a highly anticipated matchup, as Cleveland and LeBron James visit Tinseltown to face the Lakers. It promises to be a very entertaining day and a great way to start the work week.

Denver at Houston

The Houston Rockets (25-16, 19-22 ATS) are trying to win for the third time in four games without two of their stars. Tracy McGrady has missed the last three games as he rests his chronically sore left knee for two weeks, and Ron Artest’s right ankle has sidelined him for four straight games. That means the pressure falls to Yao Ming to pick up the slack, which he certainly did in last game, going 12-for-12 from the field to set a franchise record and finishing with 26 points and 10 rebounds in beating Miami at home 93-86 as three-point favorites. The win raises the Rockets record at home to 13-5, yet like usual, they are just 7-11 ATS and come into this encounter 5-13 ATS after a game where they covered the spread.

Denver (27-14, 22-18-1 ATS) concluded their longest home stand of the season with a 5-2 (4-3 ATS) record, after they lost to Orlando by 18 points. The Nuggets shot just 36.5 percent (31-for-85) from the field and matched its lowest point total of the season with 88. They will seek to quickly rebound and are 11-2 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.

Sportsbook.com has first place Denver as three-point underdogs with a total of 194. The Nuggets are 4-15 ATS in road games after playing four consecutive games as favorite, though the Rockets are no better at 4-13 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. This Western Conference confrontation can be seen in local markets starting at 2 Eastern.

Detroit at Memphis

Detroit has been playing ugly basketball with five straight losses (0-5 ATS). The Pistons are physically beat-up after Allen Iverson and Tayshaun Prince were both injured in Saturday’s home loss to New Orleans 91-85. Both are considered questionable for this contest, as Detroit (22-17, 16-23 ATS) is already trying to nurse Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton back to health, as neither has looked sharp in their recent returns. It has been all about the offense misfiring for the Pistons, averaging 86 points per game in this stretch and Detroit is only 3-8 ATS with one day between games.

Memphis (11-28, 15-23-1 ATS) comes in having lost five straight (0-5 ATS) and 13 of its last 15 games (4-11-1 ATS) after falling 101-91 on Friday to the Utah Jazz. “Everybody’s frustrated,” Marc Gasol said. “If somebody’s not frustrated, then they have a problem. Everybody should be frustrated.” The Grizzlies are 6-15 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. The line on this matchup will be released pending the status of Pistons players.
Phoenix at Boston

It appears Boston (33-9, 22-20 ATS) has turned its season back around, after losing seven of nine, with four consecutive wins. Defeating Toronto and New Jersey each twice might not qualify as resurgence, nevertheless a very good starting point. The Celtics are 20-2 and 13-9 ATS at home and 11-3 ATS at TD Banknorth Garden after playing three consecutive games as favorite this season. Boston takes on Phoenix who is still trying to establish a true identity.

Phoenix (22-15, 13-24 ATS) began their longest road trip of the season on Sunday, sneaking by Toronto 117-113 as four point road favorites. This came on the heels of losing at home to Minnesota and the Suns are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight outings. The Suns are in the midst of a makeover this season under new coach Terry Porter, who said the up-tempo style is “not to my liking” after Sunday’s victory. Still, Phoenix has scored more than 100 points in 17 of its last 18 games and allowed that many in 20 of the last 23. Game time is set for 8 Eastern, with the Suns 5-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Boston is an eight-point favorite with total of 203.5.

Cleveland at L.A. Lakers

The Lakers leaky defense has become a conundrum and they will look to avoid first three-game losing streak in almost a year, preparing to take on LeBron James and Cleveland. Los Angeles (31-8, 18-21 ATS) has surrendered 109.5 points per game in last seven games and they have not dropped three in a row since Jan. 23-27 of last season, which included a loss to Cleveland. “We have to back it up and stop this bleeding right now,” Los Angeles coach Phil Jackson said. Los Angeles boasts the league’s top-scoring offense at 107.6 PPG, but it may have trouble against the NBA’s stingiest defense.

Cleveland (31-7) allows just 89 points a game and the Lakers are 1-8 ATS at the Staples Center after scoring 100 points or more five straight games this season. The Cavs are also tops in field goal percentage defense at 41.9 percent. Cleveland has won five in a row (4-1 ATS) over L.A. by controlling the tempo of the game, with the Lakers scoring more than 95 points just once. Cleveland is 23-2 and 20-5 ATS when they hold opposing teams to 95 or fewer points this season. Coach Mike Brown’s club is superb 27-11 against the spread this year.

The Lakers are five-point favorites with total of 204, with L.A. just 11-23 ATS after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. The ball goes up at 10:35 Eastern to close a great NBA day.

---