Odds on NBA

Odds on NBA

SuperBowl Betting SuperBowl Odds Bet on Super Bowl Super Bowl Line

NBA conferences still show disparity
2010-02-03

After a run of the East seemingly gaining ground over the past few years, the Western Conference has been superior this season. This is evidenced by the fact that the Eastern Conference has six teams with winning records (one is one game over .500) and the West has just four teams with losing records among its 15 members. Let’s dig into the details a little further and see if we can’t use any of the findings to profit on Wednesday’s NBA betting board. See all of the wagering options on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.

One thing to consider this year besides the overall dominance once again, the wagering aspect comes into play more than one might think. The West holds a 160-122 SU (56.7%) edge in head-to-head competition against those from the other conference. It would make sense the West would also be grabbing most of the money when these teams meet, however their stranglehold ends up being a little tighter than traditional numbers. The West is 150-126-6 ATS, 54.3 percent, just over two percent off the SU winning percentage.

As to be expected there are winners and losers in each conference, thus let’s take a look at who is profiting and who is not on either side of the Mississippi River.

The two West squads that have taken everyone aback are up and comers Oklahoma City and Memphis. Unquestionably these are two young and talented teams who could change the dynamics of the Western Conference if they can keep their nucleus’ together while adding more quality to their rosters in the seasons to come. Each has grown this season by beating up the East. The Thunder is 16-6 SU and ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-6 and 10-5 ATS. Oklahoma City in particular has been impressive in winning by 6.6 points per contest.

The Los Angeles Lakers have enjoyed the most non-conference success at 17-3, but most nights are fighting the oddsmakers for their supporters and are a fair 10-8-2 ATS. The other club that plays in the Staples Center is actually a better bet and has shown real signs of improvement despite lacking players they thought they could count on like No. 1 pick Blake Griffin and Kareem Rush, both injured all or most of the season. The Clippers are 11-8 and 12-6-1 ATS.

A number of other teams have winning records, however are not at least to this point an overwhelming wager. Denver has 13-6 (11-8 ATS) record, San Antonio 13-5 (10-8 ATS), Utah 13-6 (11-8 ATS) and Dallas is 14-5 with only 9-10 spread mark.

The biggest disappointments out West have been Houston at 5-9 ATS with six wins and Sacramento at 6-13 SU and ATS when they face teams from at least two zones away. Golden State may be 6-13, but their style of play leaves Eastern teams confounded and the Warriors are 11-7-1 ATS.

Not every East team is horrible versus the West, it just seems that way. Six Eastern teams have winning records against their Western counterparts; however a couple of those are a loss or two from being .500 or less straight up. For those laying down the cash, Atlanta is the best at 12-7 ATS with a 13-6 SU record. The Hawks are where Oklahoma City and Memphis envision themselves in a year or two or possibly sooner, a good team that has young veteran talent which still has an upside.

Cleveland is the best of the East bunch at 18-5, handing the Lakers two of their three Eastern defeats. Nonetheless, like L.A., oddsmakes often leave the Cavs too many points to overcome with a 13-10-1 ATS mark. Boston has a representative 10-6 record, but being a public team and injury-plagued are a crestfallen 4-11-1 ATS.

The lousy teams in the East are rotten pretty much against whomever they play. Here are their crummy numbers.

Philadelphia 7-14, 9-12 ATS
Washington 4-14, 7-10-1 ATS
Detroit 4-15, 7-12 ATS
Indiana 4-14, 6-12 ATS

You are probably wondering about New Jersey, because they have been so insufferable, thought the Nets deserved special mention at 1-19 and 5-15 ATS. Their Atlantic Division partner New York, is a sleepy 6-11 vs. the West, yet about even money bet at 9-8 ATS.

In conclusion, when East meets West, the teams in the Central and Eastern Time zones consistently come up short and are poor wagers.

---

NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends 1/29-1/31
2010-01-29

This weekend’s action in the NBA will wrap up the month of January, meaning we are just 2-1/2 short months away from the playoffs already. Even as of now, we are getting a good feel for which teams figure to be involved in the playoff chase the rest of the way. The top eight seeds in the Eastern Conference have separated from #9 by 3-games. In the West, the picture is a bit more muddled, with 11 teams distancing themselves and vying for eight spots. In fact, seeds #4-11 are separated by just three games heading into this weekend’s action. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the next three days, particularly those games involving playoff hopefuls. We’ll also reveal our weekly Top StatFox Power Trends that could affect the wagering action.

Unlike recent weekends, the slate over the next three days is loaded on each day. On Friday, there are 12 games, but unlike usual, there is no ESPN doubleheader to take in. There really should be too, since there is a nice board of games to choose from. In the East, Boston will be visiting Atlanta, looking to turn the tide of three straight losses to the Hawks. The Celtics are finally back at near full strength with Kevin Garnett having returned after missing 10 games due to injury. They have been a disappointment for bettors this season but could be ready to go on a run. This will be a difficult spot for Boston, considering it just played on Thursday in Orlando, and is just 2-6 ATS on zero days rest. Atlanta is one of the NBA’s best teams at home, boasting an 18-5 SU & 16-7 ATS mark. The Hawks are also 9-2 SU & ATS vs. Atlantic Division foes.

In the Western Conference on Friday, there are three compelling matchups between potential playoff contenders. Denver, the current #2 seed in the conference, visits Oklahoma City, looking to extend an 8-game winning streak. The Thunder have lost three straight and hope to avoid their first 4-game skid of the season. Watch the line closely, as Denver is 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog. In Houston, the Blazers & Rockets will get together. The teams are separated by 2-games right now in the standings and each has lost at least its last two games. Strangely, Portland would love to stay in the West, as they boast a 17-9 SU & 15-11 ATS mark vs. conference foes. Finally, in San Antonio, the Spurs will host the Grizzlies. Don’t look now, but Memphis has crept to within a game of the Spurs by winning eight of its L10 games. The Griz are just 8-14 on the road though, and allow nearly 108 PPG. San Antonio is having all kinds of problems maintaining any consistency.

Saturday’s board is the lightest of the three days this weekend, but still six different games are on tap, including three between playoff hopefuls. In Orlando, the Magic will welcome the Hawks to town. Atlanta and Orlando will have each hosted Boston since Thursday, so the common opponent rule of handicapping could be applied. The Hawks are 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS on zero days rest in ’09-10. A bit later, New Orleans will visit Memphis, and Portland will be in Dallas. The city of New Orleans is of course “abuzz” about the Saints, but the Hornets have picked up their play of late, and were 16-4 at home heading into the weekend. Dallas continues to have trouble covering pointspreads at home, owning just a 5-16 ATS mark despite winning 14 of the 21 games outright. The Mavericks recently tied the record for most consecutive wins in one-point games, beating Milwaukee Tuesday for their 10th straight such decision.

The Sunday board is the biggest of the year, as the NBA takes advantage of the off-week in lead up to the Super Bowl. ABC is back at it too, offering up a stellar doubleheader in the afternoon. At 1:00 PM ET, the Nuggets and Spurs will tip it off from San Antonio. It will be just the second time the teams have met this season, with the Spurs looking to avenge a 106-99 defeat at home back in December. At 3:30 PM ET, the Lakers will continue their long 8-game road trip with a stop in Boston. These are the last two NBA champions and figure to be among the last teams standing in May and June.

Now, here are those top trends you’ll want to consider as you build your wagering cards for the weekend:

Friday, 01/29/2010
(807) WASHINGTON vs. (808) NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 89.8, OPPONENT 106.9 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) DENVER vs. (814) OKLAHOMA CITY
DENVER is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51%-60%) in 2nd half of the last 3 seasons. The average score was DENVER 111.3, OPPONENT 96 - (Rating = 2*)

(817) MEMPHIS vs. (818) SAN ANTONIO
MEMPHIS is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MEMPHIS 97.1, OPPONENT 105.3 - (Rating = 2*)

(817) MEMPHIS vs. (818) SAN ANTONIO
MEMPHIS is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 105.8, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(823) NEW ORLEANS vs. (824) GOLDEN STATE
NEW ORLEANS is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 97, OPPONENT 104.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 01/30/2010
(501) ATLANTA vs. (502) ORLANDO
ATLANTA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games vs. good teams outscoring foes by 3+ PPG in 2nd half of L3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 87.6, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(501) ATLANTA vs. (502) ORLANDO
ATLANTA is 25-6 UNDER (+18.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 92, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 4*)

(505) NEW YORK vs. (506) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 100.1, OPPONENT 104.5 - (Rating = 3*)

(511) CHARLOTTE vs. (512) SACRAMENTO
SACRAMENTO is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SACRAMENTO 97.4, OPPONENT 110.2 - (Rating = 3*)

Sunday, 01/31/2010
(805) LA CLIPPERS vs. (806) CLEVELAND
LA CLIPPERS are 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) vs good shooting teams (>=46% FG Pct) in 2nd half of the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 93.8, OPPONENT 109.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(807) PHILADELPHIA vs. (808) NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 88.8, OPPONENT 106.7 - (Rating = 2*)

(813) NEW YORK vs. (814) MINNESOTA
NEW YORK is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) vs. poor 3PT shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts this season. The average score was NEW YORK 97.2, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 4*)

(817) PHOENIX vs. (818) HOUSTON
PHOENIX is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) vs poor defensive teams (FG Pct defense >=46%) in 2nd half of last 3 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 122.3, OPPONENT 108.7 - (Rating = 2*)

---

NBA: NBA Thursday TNT Doubleheader
2010-01-29

In the two televised games on TNT tonight, a special situation occurs you don’t see every night. Boston and Dallas are the two road teams that are on television and they rank first and third respectively in the NBA for the best straight up road records at 16 -6 and 16-8. Their opponents are both in the Top 10 for the best home records, winning over 73 percent. This leaves Sportsbook.com bettors with the quandary of not only deciding which teams will cover the spreads, but also whether or not they are worth an accompanying money line wager.

Boston at Orlando 8:00 Eastern
The Celtics (29-13, 17-25 ATS) have the second best record in the Eastern Conference behind Cleveland. This veteran club is 16-6 on the road, but is far from a good bet despite that success. Boston is merely 11-11 ATS in the visiting green uniforms; however it’s hard to blame them for being average. The Celtics have been labeled a road favorite in 16 of their 22 road excursions. They are 12-4 SU, a very solid record, in those games, having won by an incredible 8.2 points per game, yet are 7-9 ATS, which ends up being more an indictment of the opposition, than of Boston.

The Orlando Magic (29-16, 21-21-3 ATS) have played 10 of their last 14 away from their central Florida home and will be in more familiar surroundings with four of their next five outings in front of the home folks. The Magic are 16-4 SU at Amway Arena (5th best home record) and punish visiting clubs by 10.4 points per game. In the gambling world, this type of success will bring high numbers from oddsmakers, which is why Orlando is a not so magical 10-9-1 ATS at home.
The Celtics only recently got Kevin Garnett back after he missed 10 games. While the defense has picked up immediately, the offense is lagging behind. Boston averages 99.7 points per game, but has only reached that figure twice in last nine tries. This explains a recent 3-6 ATS record, including losing five in a row. The Sportsbook.com oddsmakers have handed out the typical number for these evenly matched teams, making the C’s a four-point underdog with total of 187.5.

Boston is a deceiving 10-20 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season (they win by 5.4 PPG). Orlando lost at Memphis in its previous game and is a splendid 34-12 ATS off a road defeat over the last three seasons. The road team has won three in a row in this matchup, including the Magic totaling a mere 77 points at home on Christmas Day, losing by nine as 5.5-point favorites. They are 23-11 ATS revenging a home loss. The total is the lowest in 11 regular season games at the city Walt Disney made famous and six of the last eight have played UNDER the number.

Dallas at Phoenix 10:30 Eastern
Dallas (30-15, 20-25 ATS) is a rock solid 16-8 on the road (15-9 ATS), winning by over four points per game. The Mavericks seem to be more comfortable away from home, despite having the same winning percentage, as evidenced by the +1.5 points per game scoring differential at American Airlines Center. Their one point 108-107 win over Milwaukee Tuesday got them into the NBA record books and it’s hard to determine if the Mavs are good or just lucky, as that win was their 10th straight victory by a single digit, tying the St. Louis Hawks from 50 years ago. Dallas is 47-26 ATS on the road after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more.

Phoenix (26-21, 22-24 ATS) is no longer on the rise. After starting 14-3, the Suns have been setting, losing 18 of their next 30. In that first part of the season, Phoenix at least gave a passing interest in attempting to play defense, allowing 104.5 points per game, since then the Suns have shown a greater disinterest in halting opponents from scoring, now ranked next to last in points allowed at 107.9.

Phoenix is 17-6 at home with an 11-11-1 ATS mark. They have been without two important bench players lately, Leandro Barbosa and Grant Hill, with Barbosa out six weeks after wrist surgery and Hill day-to-day with bum heel. Also swirling around the desert is the specter of Amare Stoudemire trade, which has him going pretty much everywhere but to a good team. While the Suns big man talks about wanting to win, his defense and rebounding would generously be described as ordinary. The floundering Suns are 7-21 ATS in January games over the last two seasons.

Phoenix is a 1.5-point home favorite with total of 216 and they are off a 114-109 overtime home loss to Charlotte. The Suns are 20-9 ATS in home games after contest in which both teams scored 105 points or more and are 18-8 OVER after draining a dozen or more three-point shots. Dallas on the other hand is 11-2 ATS as visitors after not covering the spread and 11-1 UNDER after two straight games where they made 50 percent of their shots or better.

The Suns are playing into triple revenge and have lost five of last six to the Mavs and needs to show some defensive acumen to improve the home record.
The StatFox Power Lines show Orlando by 7, and a Pick em’ in the nightcap.

---

NBA: Betting NBA teams on the rise
2010-01-22

Twenty-six NBA teams will be in action this Friday night, however two matchups stand out which won’t get the lion’s share of wagering dollars. The reason is these are not public teams, all with a history of professional basketball failure or little history at all. Charlotte heads south to take on division rival Atlanta and Oklahoma City travels to the mid-south to tackle Memphis. Ironically, all four teams are enjoying breakout seasons. Read on for a look at both games, then head over to the BETTING TRENDS page on Sportsbook.com to see the latest odds and where the money is going for all of Friday’s action.

Atlanta hopes to avoid Charlotte’s web

The Charlotte Bobcats (21-19, 25-15 ATS) are on the prowl and suddenly dangerous having tied a franchise record with six consecutive wins (4-2 ATS), all at Time Warner Cable Arena. There is nothing fluky about Charlotte winning either, with an average margin of victory 15.5 points per game. The Bobcats are 9-1 since 2010 arrived. “I can’t explain this,” coach Larry Brown said. “Guys are playing at a high level.”

Charlotte is a 6.5-point underdog at Sportsbook.com and is 11-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, as they prepare for Southeast Division leader Atlanta (27-14 SU and ATS). The Hawks have been solid all year and have won six of their last eight (5-3 ATS). Atlanta is well aware of how Charlotte is playing however.

“They’re playing extremely well from a defensive standpoint so we’ll be tested without a doubt,” coach Mike Woodson said. “We’ll see where we stand from a defensive standpoint because they’ve got three, four guys that can really score the basketball and Jackson coming over from Golden State has really helped their ballclub.” The Bobcats are first in fewest points allowed in the NBA (92.2) and fourth in field goal defense (44.1).

Atlanta is seeking a quality 4-1 homestand, before heading out of town to play four of its next five away from home. The Hawks have the league’s best home record at 17-5 and are 15-7 ATS. Atlanta lost by 20 points (103-83) at Charlotte back on Nov.6 and are 16-6 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

The Hawks would seem to be in a solid situation since home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home win against a division rival, cover 75 percent of the time (36-12). And Charlotte is a mere 3-15 on the road, losing by 5.8 points per game; however is 11-7 ATS. Sports South carries the action at 7:30 Eastern.

How did this happen?

It’s been suggested from time to time the NBA’s playoff structure should be altered. Presently the Western Conference has far more good teams than the Eastern Conference, which has been the case for the last several years. If the league went to taking the best 16 teams by records, the West would horde 11 of those spots as the standings are today. Included would be two unlikely teams, Oklahoma City and Memphis.

Like the line from the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, “Who are these guys?”

Right out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, The Thunder and Grizzlies are the two best teams in the West the last month. Oklahoma City is 11-4 and 9-6 ATS since Dec. 23. The Thunder is a very young team and amazingly, coach Scott Brooks has been able to convince them that defense is the way to get better. In Oklahoma City’s last 14 games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points per game on 41.9 shooting, the latter easily the best in the NBA. The Thunder (24-18, 25-17 ATS) won by two at Minnesota in their last outing as seven point favorites and are an awesome 14-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

Memphis (22-19, 24-17 ATS) has been right on Oklahoma City’s tail, winning nine of its last 13 and their turnaround goes even a little further back sporting a 12-4 SU and ATS record since Dec. 18. The Grizzlies are also a youthful squad, with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and still relatively young Zach Randolph. The Grizz come into this showdown 17-6 ATS after having won three of their last four games.

Memphis is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 204.5. The Grizzlies lost to Oklahoma City at home back in December and are 15-5 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Thunder will seek their fifth win in six tries over Memphis since moving to Oklahoma (4-1 ATS) and have a recipe for success. If OKC scores 100 or more points and holds the opposition under that number, they are 11-0 ATS this season.

Keep a close eye on the total, with the Grizzlies 10-0 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread this year and Oklahoma City 12-3 OVER in road games having played eight or more games in 14 days. Fox Sports in Oklahoma will carry this contest of two up and comers starting 8 Eastern.

The StatFox Power Lines for these games show Charlotte by 3, Memphis by 3

---

NBA: Lakers and Cavaliers Clash (8:00 PM ET, TNT)
2010-01-21

In a possible NBA finals preview Thursday night, Cleveland will host the Los Angeles Lakers, who have a score to settle after being embarrassed 102-87 by the Cavs on Christmas Day. It was a lump-of-coal-in-the-stocking-loss that ended with irate Lakers fans tossing foam fingers—and a few filled water bottles— onto the Staples Center court in anger. In tonight’s rematch, the host Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but the majority of bettors, 83%, are looking for the Lakers to keep ti close or pull the upset.

In December, with Mo Williams scoring 28 points, James adding 26 and Shaquille O’Neal acting as their enforcer, the Cavaliers bullied the defending NBA champions, whose frustration level led to them retaliating with some cheap shots and being slapped with several technical fouls.

“We didn’t like that Christmas game,” Lakers center Pau Gasol said. “It was very disappointing on our part. We’ve got to try to get that ballgame when we play them again. We need to do that. You never want a team to get the confidence they can beat you, especially when it’s somebody you might see down the road in the playoffs.” The Lakers are 33-20 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by three or points game over the last two seasons.

The stop in Cleveland begins a demanding, eight-game road trip for the Lakers (32-9, 18-22-1 ATS), who have the league’s best record in part because of a favorable schedule. They’ve played just 15 road games—compared to 25 for the Cavs—and the imbalance has helped Los Angeles open a five-game lead over Dallas in the Western Conference. L.A. is 9-6 on the road, but just 5-10 ATS.

That could change depending on how the Lakers handle a stretch of eight games in 13 days, including three sets of back-to-backs. Last season, Los Angeles went 6-0 on a similar Eastern trip that helped propel the Lakers to a title.

First, though, they want to erase the memories of an unhappy holiday that was particularly hazardous for forward Ron Artest.

“That Christmas game was tough, and then that whole day wasn’t too good for me, anyway,” said Artest, who suffered a concussion in a fall at home hours after the loss to Cleveland. “We feel like we’re a better team now than when we played them before.”

The Cavaliers believe they are better, too.

At 32-11 (20-22-1 ATS), Cleveland has the best record in the East, and with 23 of their final 39 games at home, the Cavs have a chance to run away from Boston, Orlando and Atlanta, their closest competitors in the conference. They just returned from a West Coast trip, where they displayed some bad habits—a tendency to rely too heavily on James—and also some new offensive wrinkles with O’Neal on the floor. They are on a run of 15-6 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Seconds after LeBron James and his Cavaliers teammates dismissed the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday, one excited Cleveland fan began a solitary chant.

“Beat L.A., Beat L.A.,” he screamed.

Dude, chill. It’s January. But maybe not too early to dream about June.
After all, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are coming.

Lakers coach Phil Jackson doesn’t want his team to get too caught up in Thursday’s matchup or the Lakers’ upcoming trip, which will take the club to New York on Friday and won’t conclude until Feb. 1 in Memphis.
“Last year’s road trip jump-started our season,” he said. “I’m setting a low bar for this team, though. We don’t need to put too much emphasis on the entire trip as a whole. We just need to play good, solid games and avoid injuries, starting in Cleveland. We don’t assign a whole lot extra importance to that game, even though it is an interesting game.”
Cleveland is a 3.5-point favorite with total of 194.5 at Sportsbook.com and has covered seven straight as home favorite of 4.5 or less points. The one potential downfall for the Cavs is they have not covered the number in their last seven games (0-6-1 ATS) off a win and is 27-12 UNDER in home games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread.

The Lakers are 29-14 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and will want to get that bad taste out of their mouths from Christmas Day. Los Angeles has covered their last four Thursday assignments and is 18-6 UNDER when playing with two days rest since last season.
This is the 8:05 Eastern matchup on TNT and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the head-to-head series with the UNDER 5-0 in Cleveland.

The StatFox Power Line shows Cleveland by 5, and getting a chance to back the Cavs as this small of a home favorite is a rarity.

---