Odds on NBA

Odds on NBA

NBA: Orlando still favored, just by less in Game 4
2009-06-11

The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)

This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.

Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.

For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.

Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.

Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.

Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.

Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.

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NBA: Orlando looks to even the score (8:05 PM ET, ABC)
2009-06-08

The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations. Orlando will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. Most bettors don’t believe they will, as with the pointspread set at Lakers -6.5, over 90% of the early action goes that way according to the BETTING TRENDS page.

If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.
The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.

That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at Sportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.

You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.
Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.

The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.

Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.

Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.

The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.

The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.

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NBA Finals Wagering Preview
2009-06-04

“Do you believe in Magic?” Whether you like the original hit song by the Lovin’ Spoonful from 1965 and the countless times it has been used in television commercials or the updated version by Disney Channel’s Aly and AJ, the question remains the same. Do you believe in the Orlando Magic? Oddsmakers and most bettors don’t, instead choosing to side with the heavily favored Lakers (-260) for the series, according to Sportsbook.com.

Dwight Howard and his gang of long range bombers have certainly been up to the test, eliminating Philadelphia as expected, Boston as presumed (without Kevin Garnett) and Cleveland most unexpectedly. In many ways Orlando has grown up right before our very eyes.

The Magic gave away games to the Sixers and Celtics, yet closed out each on the road to advance. When LeBron James made thaumaturgy shot to save Cleveland in Game 2 of East Finals, Orlando could have suffered carry over, yet did not.

We have seen the maturation of Dwight Howard from somewhat passive Clark Kent to angry superstar, demanding the ball and when the pill came his way, put up exemplary numbers to lead his team. Even coach Stan Van Gundy, who has been come under much scrutiny (here for example), has grown as head coach, working out details with Howard and not letting ego get in the way and has his team four wins away from being NBA champions.

Do you believe in the Magic?

Oddsmakers, like those at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to, making the Lakers -260 favorites to take the series. The most popular exact game wager is Los Angeles in six (+220 bet). Others don’t necessarily see it that way.

Mark Lawrence of Playbook.com offered this about The Finals - “Interesting technical aspects conflict in this matchup. The Lakers have been miserable in championship finals the past two rounds, going 3-8 SU and 0-10-1 ATS. On the flip side they've pushed the Magic around in the series, going 29-10 SU and 24-12-1 ATS, despite dropping both games this season. The feeling here is it would be no surprise if either team wins.”

Also made a call to Joe Nelson of Nellysports.com, who is on the Playbook roster and he gave his insights. “The Magic made at least ten 3-point shots in all four games against the Lakers in the regular season the last two years, winning three of the four games. Orlando shot over 40 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals and if they continue to shoot well from long-range, the Magic will win this series and become the NBA champions.”

Nelson added, “The Lakers are a heavy favorite for the series but with the Magic winning twice in Los Angeles in the regular season (last two years), it would not be a surprise to see Orlando steal one of the first two games. Much like last season the Finals will feature extreme coast-to-coast travel with over 2,500 miles separating these venues. The Lakers went 0-6 ATS in Finals last season and Los Angeles was just 5-5 ATS in home contests in the first three rounds of the playoffs. With two impressive wins to wipe out Denver in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers have alleviated some of the concerns raised early in the playoffs but this will be a tough match-up for Los Angeles and Orlando has the talent and versatility to be a serious threat in the series despite the solid underdog status.”

Orlando has given several reasons to like them. The Magic are 12-7 in the playoffs and after dropping first four games to Philly as favorites, they are 11-4 ATS since. Orlando is 5-5 SU and ATS on the road under postseason pressure and 32-19 straight up and against the number for the entire season. Hedo Turkoglu and the fellas can play with teams scoring bundles of points, because of perimeter shooting and are 16-4 ATS in road games versus offensive clubs scoring 103 or more points a game.

The Lakers have shown unwillingness to go all out until necessary since the playoffs started, which could prove fatal against Orlando. Denver made a ton of long range shots in first four encounters against Lakers, due to poor defensive rotations. Derek Fisher is still defensive liability and Lamar Odom; it depends which multiple personality shows up at game time. Howard has the strength and power to push around Pau Gasol and draw fouls expediently on Andrew Bynum.
“Do you believe in Magic”

Steve Makinen of StatFox.com thinks Orlando can cause Phil Jackson’s squad trouble, just not enough to wager against them. “Last I saw, Orlando swept this regular season series, while the Lakers took both games from the Cavaliers. In my opinion, oddsmakers have inflated the line of Game 1 of the NBA Finals by at least 1-1/2 points, installing L.A. as a 6-point favorite. If you recall last year, Los Angeles was overwhelmed in the finals by an outstanding defensive club in Boston. While Orlando isn’t quite as good overall or defensively as that team, the Magic are still strong enough to compete and possibly win this series. In the end I figure it comes down to how well Orlando shoots it from the perimeter. If it’s anything like the regular season in which the Magic made 12 3-point shots in each game versus the Lakers, they will win. However, I think the series format of home court advantage (2-3-2) favors L.A., and that will be the deciding factor.”

Everything since being humiliated 131-92 in Game 6 at Boston last year has pointed to this for Los Angeles. The Lakers are well-rested and are 8-1 ATS when playing only their second game in seven days this season. Gasol showed his wherewithal in making big baskets in Games 5 and 6 against Denver and could force Howard into foul trouble if he becomes overaggressive.

Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu are primarily perimeter players and if Odom shows up mentally and Trevor Ariza continues to distinguish himself, the Lakers should be able to hold down the scoring of this duo. On the other end of the floor, Odom can be a handful for either, with inside and outside capabilities. The Lakers bench has become increasingly more useful, as the dates have come off the calendar since the end of the regular season. Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton have all given efficient minutes since mid-May.

Then you have the “Kobe” factor. Bryant was denied ring he so dearly wants last season and has been on a mission since. He’s still selfish from time to time, however, in the last couple of years, that has had more to do with desire to win, than just wanting to improve image. Whether it is Courtney Lee or Mickael Pietrus trying to defend Bryant, he should school them individually and carve up Magic defense when they try and double team with his crisp, accurate passes.

Lastly, is the coaching difference. Phil Jackson was strangely out-maneuvered by Doc Rivers last spring, however in hindsight, Boston had more players motivated towards a cause and Rivers pushed all the right buttons with what was a better team. Jackson was at his best against Denver. After getting a read on exactly what the Nuggets were doing, he had his team effectively took away what Denver did best in last two games and Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony were disabled after strong beginning.

Like any coach, when things are going well, they look smart, when they don’t, it’s about how they react. If the Magic lose first two games at Staples Center, does the surly side of Van Gundy return? If the Lakers are able to deny Howard touches, does that create more friction between Superman and the coach? It has been Van Gundy’s M.O. to micromanage when situations become stressful, how will he respond? This could be telling factor in this series.

The action starts Thursday night on ABC, with Lakers as 6.5-point favorites and total of 206. Before placing wager, know the underdog is on 6-0 ATS roll.

Do you believe in the Orlando Magic?

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NBA: Can Orlando closeout Cavs at home? (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29

From sweaty t-shirts printed, to songs from Cold World and Non Phixion, the story is all the same – Refuse to Lose. That is what the Cleveland Cavaliers did at home and they live to play again in Game 6 in Orlando. The chief architect was a familiar face, LeBron James and while he deserves the king’s share of credit, he hardly did it by himself this time. His team will look to force a deciding Game 7 contest on Monday with a win in Orlando Saturday night. The Magic opened as a 2-point favorite at Sportsbook. Follow the line and betting action right up until tip-time.
The focus on news outlets was James triple-double; however this time he had comrades in arms, who were ready to seize the moment. LeBron was also helped by the fact his coach Mike Brown, made adjustments prior to the game, which kept the Magic off-balance and could play into how long this Eastern Final continues.

Cleveland started the game with best ball movement of the series, having all five players on the floor involved and it paid immediate dividends with both Mo Williams and Delonte West making shots and restoring their confidence. Of course with Orlando, take nothing for granted and by halftime, the Cavaliers 17-point lead had melted faster than a Disney snow cone in June, with Cleveland up by just a single point after 24 minutes.

The third quarter was back and forth, with Orlando showing why they were 17-4 ATS playing as underdog coming into Game 5 and held slim one digit lead after three quarters.

With Cleveland 6-1 ATS in last seven games after breaking century mark in points, it was James will that did not allow his team to lose. After receiving much credit for guarding LeBron well, Orlando’s Mickael Pietrus more resembled Wally Szczerbiak trying to contain James. When LeBron needed to score he did, when he needed to find open shooter, he did and this time his teammates responded.

Coach Brown added a new offense wrinkle that widened the area James had at the top of the key, giving him more freedom to roam than a person wanting breakfast at dinner time at IHOP. This spacing prevented effective Orlando double-teams and set up Cleveland shooters to “walk into” shots in rhythm. Because of how effective this adjustment worked, coach Ron Jeremy, whoops, Stan Van Gundy will have to come up with an answer to counter, otherwise this series heads back to Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five contests against the spread since 2007, winning by almost six points a game (5.8). Coach Brown and James, have their fingers crossed the Cavs guards have rediscovered shooting touch and reserve Daniel Gibson can come off the bench and supply double digits again. Cleveland is a two-point underdog at Sportsbook.com, with a total of 193, easily the highest of the series. The Cavs are 14-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more and seemed resigned to the fact they have to outscore Orlando, rather than out-defend them.

This will be the Magic’s second opportunity in the postseason to clinch series at Amway Arena, having failed in same spot against Boston. Orlando is 10-1 ATS at home after a loss by 10 points or more and 14-2 against the spread in downtown Orlando after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. The Magic will have to bring sterner defense, as Cavs shot 50 percent from the field and the three-balls. Dwight Howard needs more than 10 attempts and he has to be more assertive on offensive glass then snagging three boards.

Rashard Lewis can’t be so passive and Rafer Alston can’t miss nine of 10 shots. Coach Van Gundy must talk about ball movement, since Orlando had as many assists (12) as LeBron did.

Game 6 should be fascinating on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern and totals players; here is a sterling system to consider - Play OVER when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points in the sixth game of a playoff series. (22-4, 84.6 percent L13Y)

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