2010-02-12

For most bettors, the NBA All-Star Game and the entire weekend for that matter, offers a winter sabbatical from the grind of daily betting. Still, there is a line, total, and numerous props always available for this game, and many players will get involved “just for fun”. This piece is dedicated to that group, as it is certainly more fun to win your all-star wagers. Read on as I, StatFox Steve, go over a little background about the NBA’s All-Star Game, and reveal this week’s prediction, which utilizes the same strategy I have employed in winning the last three all-star games. Get the latest price and other betting options for the game on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.

The best players of the NBA will be on hand for what should be the most star-studded event in the history of the league’s all-star festivities. The 2010 NBA All-star game, to be played at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium in Arlington, TX, figures to be played in front of the largest crowd ever to watch a basketball game. Unfortunately, the game took a hit when one of the biggest of the stars, Kobe Bryant, who has been alternating MVP’s of the last four showcases with Lebron James, had to back out due to injury.

Last season, the West defeated the East 146-119 with Bryant of the Lakers stealing the MVP honors back away from James. The two of them have formed their own personal head-to-head dual in recent years, and the MVP honor for ’10 figures to come down to James and whether or not his team wins the game. I’m here to analyze that prospect as well as to dig up some key handicapping information from past all-star games in order to help you if you choose to partake in this year’s proceedings. The West opened as a 4-1/2 point favorite with a total of 262, but since the injury news, the line is down to West -3, total: 260.

James is the go-to guy for the East, and the rest of the starting five was going to be identical to a year ago, until Allen Iverson backed out. He was replaced by Rajon Rondo and is joined by Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics, and Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat. On the bench for the East are all-stars Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics, David Lee of the Knicks, Al Horford and Joe Johnson of the Hawks, Derrick Rose of the Bulls, Gerald Wallace of Charlotte, and Chris Bosh of the Raptors. Bosh was a starter in the 2007 game.

If you read this week’s Platinum Sheet, you would have seen that Iverson had a dragging effect on the East’s PVR total. However, since he left, the East figures to be in much better position.

The West All-Stars starters include Steve Nash of the Phoenix Suns, Dirk Nowitzki of the hometown Mavericks, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns, Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs and Carmelo Anthony of the Denver Nuggets. The bench of the West will include Zach Randolph of Memphis, Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets, Chris Kaman of the LA Clippers, Derron Williams of the Utah Jazz, Jason Kidd of the Mavericks, Pau Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers and Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City.

Coaching the East will be the Orlando Magic’s Stan Van Gundy, and the coach of the West will be the Denver Nuggets’ George Karl. The West lost a lot with the injuries to the Hornets’ Chris Paul, Bryant, and the Blazers’ Brandon Roy, but still seems to boast a significant size advantage once again, with seven players boasting power forward size or greater. If anything, the speed could be the advantage of the East. Being in Dallas, the “home court advantage” will again be favoring the West for the 7th straight season. Officially, the East hosted the ’07 game in Vegas, but the regional edge was to the West.

Last year’s championship run by the Lakers and the current standings in the league have many experts believing that any ground the East had gained in recent years has been lost. While very top heavy with its four elite teams (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta), the rest of East owned a winning percentage below the TOP 10 in the West as of presstime. In terms of head-to-head records in non-conference play this season, through action on Thursday, the West was 8-games above .500 against the East. Compare that to last season, when the East was +20 games at that same point, and two years ago when the West was +43.

Considering the West has been favored in every NBA All-Star Game since ’01, it’s not a surprise that they are the chalk again for this game. Here are a few other trends that have formed in recent years in the NBA mid-season extravaganza:

The straight up winner has taken all but one of the last nine games ATS.

The Eastern Conference in on an all-star game run of 4-2 ATS, all as the underdog.

OVER the total has converted in three straight games and six of the L8.

Shaquille O’Neal, the ’04 MVP, is the only one of the L9 MVP’s not in the ’10 game.

So, who wins this year’s game? Who should we bet on? Most often, it comes down to these questions: 1) Which roster is better? And 2) Which team will play with more cohesiveness? While it is impossible for anyone to know enough about #2 other than pure speculation, it IS possible to evaluate the first question. This can be done both from perception and quantitatively.

I have used a unique formula to determine which roster was more talented in each of the last three games. It led me to predict a 133-123 win for the West a year ago. I’ll do the same this year.

The formula involves taking into account the popular Hollinger Ratings on ESPN.com used for evaluating Player Efficiency (PER). I’ve estimated the minutes the starters and reserves will play based upon recent games and have come up with a theoretical TOTAL TEAM EFFICIENCY RATING which I use to justify a pointspread play for Sunday’s game. Take a look.

Expected East Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Rajon Rondo (Boston) - (20, 19.92, 398.4)
* Dwyane Wade (Miami) - (26, 27.59, 717.34)
* Kevin Garnett (Boston) - (19, 19.77, 375.63)
* LeBron James (Cleveland) - (28, 31.27, 875.56)
* Dwight Howard (Orlando) - (26, 23.1, 600.6)
East Reserves
David Lee (New York) - (16, 19.92, 318.72)
Derrick Rose (Chicago) - (17, 17.46, 296.82)
Chris Bosh (Toronto) - (20, 26.13, 522.6)
Al Horford (Atlanta) - (16, 18.84, 301.44)
Gerald Wallace (Charlotte) - (16, 19.36, 309.76)
Joe Johnson (Atlanta) - (18, 20.14, 362.52)
Paul Pierce (Boston) - (18, 18.77, 337.86)
Roster Total: 5417.25

Expected West Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas) - (24, 23.11, 554.64)
* Steve Nash (Phoenix) - (21, 23.2, 487.2)
* Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix) - (24, 20.09, 482.16)
* Tim Duncan (San Antonio) - (21, 27.33, 573.93)
* Carmelo Anthony (Denver) - (26, 24.62, 640.12)
West Reserves
Zach Randolph (Memphis) - (16, 22.13, 354.08)
Pao Gasol (LA Lakers) - (17, 22.34, 379.78)
Jason Kidd (Dallas) - (15, 16.95, 254.25)
Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City) - (24, 25.33, 607.92)
Chris Kaman (LA Clippers) - (16, 17.3, 276.8)
Derron Williams (Utah) - (19, 20.63, 391.97)
Chauncey Billups (Denver) - (17, 21.42, 364.14)
Roster Total: 5366.99

According to the results, assuming the minutes played breakdown is somewhat near accurate (it was VERY close a year ago), the revised East roster is about 0.9% better in terms of cumulative player efficiency ratings. That’s a good sign for an underdog in an all-star contest, however is nowhere close to as big as last season, when the West was +4.2%.

I’d have to say that after all of the shuffling of rosters due to injury, the East shows the edge on the pointspread. I will make a bold call for the upset and not-so-bold call that James will be the MVP, playing extensive minutes and putting on a show in front of the record crowd. I also think the changes will result in a slower paced, under game. Prediction: East 128, West 124.